Rebel-Civilian Interactions and Governance
A large part of my research tackles questions related to how armed groups interact and build relations with civilians, and the social origins of rebel groups affect their future trajectories. In addition to my published work, I have several ongoing projects examining rebel-civilian interactions and governance.
*** Please do not cite my unpublished work without permission. Please contact me at ilaydaonder@tamu.edu for manuscripts.
Rebel Groups’ International Legitimacy-Seeking, Social Origins, and Forced Recruitment
In preparation for submission
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Existing research on rebel aspirations for international legitimacy suggests that such aspirations may deter rebel organizations from coercive practices that carry international reputation costs. However, the quest for international legitimacy might not straightforwardly deter forced recruitment practices. Unlike other coercive practices, such as indiscriminate violence against civilians, recruitment is not a mere tactical choice but a foundational requirement for organizational survival. The indispensable need for new recruits compels rebels to weigh their recruitment needs against their aspirations for international legitimacy and balance the imperative for survival against the potential for international backlash. I argue that pre-war social origins condition legitimacy-seeking rebels’ recruitment practices. Pre-war ties to civilian-led organizations enable rebels to overcome the difficulties in spreading their ideological messages at a mass scale while operating clandestinely and persuading a large number of potential recruits whose commitment may be too tenuous to volunteer for the rebel cause purely for ideological reasons. Coupled with aspirations for international legitimacy, this should successfully deter rebels from resorting to forced recruitment. Thus, rebel organizations that are best positioned to refrain from forced recruitment are those with both aspirations for international legitimacy and pre-war ties to civilian-led organizations. Using cross-national data on 115 rebel organizations, I find strong empirical support for this hypothesis. My work builds on the growing body of research on rebel groups’ engagement with international audiences, draws attention to the role of social origins in shaping future rebel practices, and implicates that the constraints they face in mobilizing voluntary recruits condition legitimacy-seeking rebel groups’ adherence to humanitarian laws.
Civilian Constituencies and Recruitment Pools: A Network Analysis of Militant Group Cooperation and Infighting
In preparation for submission
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Existing accounts suggest that shared civilian constituencies have both cooperation- and conflict-inducing effects on inter-group militant relations. I develop a theoretical framework to explain inter-group cooperation and infighting simultaneously. I propose a conceptual distinction between shared constituencies and competition over the social support bases that serve as militant recruitment pools. Drawing on theories of the social origins of armed actors, I hypothesize that competition over recruits moderates the impact of shared constituencies on inter-group relations. I test our expectations using social network analysis tools -TERGMs- on a novel database of 53 Northeast Indian militant groups between 1981-2021. I find that groups with shared constituencies are likely to cooperate if they can differentiate their recruitment pools, whereas those that rely on the same social networks for recruitment are likely to fight. My findings have vast implications for how scholars study competition in complex multiparty conflict environments.
Local Power Vacuums, Performative Rebel Governance and Recruitment into Rebel Organizations
Research in Progress
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Rebel Kidnapping to Punish Tax Evasion? Evidence from the Islamic State in Syria (with Mark Berlin)
Research in Progress
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